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2024-12-13 04:43:55

Xinhua Commentary: China's monetary policy has changed from "prudent" to "moderately loose" to send a positive signal. The commentary published by Xinhua News Agency on the 10th pointed out that the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference held on the 9th analyzed and studied the economic work in 2025, in which the expression of monetary policy attracted people's attention. After a lapse of more than 10 years, the change of monetary policy orientation to "moderately loose" once again reflects the supportive monetary policy stance and sends a positive signal, which will strongly boost the confidence of all parties and help China's economy recover. The change of monetary policy is always closely related to a country's macroeconomic situation. This time, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party made it clear that the monetary policy will be "moderately loose" next year, not only because of the analysis and judgment of the current economic situation, but also because of the planning and consideration of the economic work next year. The timely adjustment of "loose is loose, tight is tight" will create a good monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth and high-quality development next year. From "steady" to "moderately loose", the change is the tightness of monetary policy, which is directly related to the blood of funds in the real economy. "Moderately loose" monetary policy means a reasonable money supply, a low interest rate and a relatively loose monetary and credit environment, which is conducive to further increasing financial support for key areas and weak links, guiding more funds to invest in scientific and technological innovation, people's livelihood consumption and other fields, promoting consumption and expanding investment, and better stimulating the endogenous motivation and innovation vitality of the whole society. From "steady" to "moderately loose", what remains unchanged is the supportive monetary policy stance. Since the beginning of this year, monetary policy has increased countercyclical adjustment in a timely manner. Although the tone of this year's monetary policy is "stable", on the whole, the monetary policy is flexible and moderate in implementation, and the market generally feels that China's monetary policy is in a stable and slightly loose state. The "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation next year can better reflect the "supportive" monetary policy stance. The combination of the two will further maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, reduce the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises and residents, and provide financial support for the sustained economic recovery. At present, the expected change has become an important factor affecting the economic operation, and it is helpful to guide the expectation to make clear the monetary policy orientation next year in time. Externally, the international environment will become more complicated and severe next year; Internally, China's development faces many uncertainties and challenges. At this point, clarifying the monetary policy for next year, responding to market concerns, and releasing a clear signal will help promote China's sustained economic recovery. (Xinhua News Agency)Guojin Securities: In 2025, we are optimistic about Apple's industrial chain and can independently control and benefit from the industrial chain. Guojin Securities Research Report pointed out that the AI big model has brought new development opportunities to consumer electronics and IOT hardware, and it is expected to continue to drive hardware innovation, improve the value of the industrial chain and accelerate the replacement cycle. The trend of Apple's hardware innovation and growth is gradually clear. In 2025, IPhone17 is expected to usher in great innovation in hardware and end-side AI. In 2026, Apple is expected to launch folding mobile phones/iPads and smart glasses. AI smart glasses are in full bloom and are expected to usher in explosive growth. Self-control of semiconductors is the general trend, and we are optimistic about semiconductor equipment parts, materials and domestic computing power industry chain. In 2025, we are optimistic about Apple's industrial chain, AI glasses, AI-driven and self-controllable benefit industrial chain.A shares are slow! A50ETF Huabao (159596) closed up by 0.9%, and eight of the top ten stocks rose. On December 10, the market opened sharply higher and then continued to fall. A50ETF Huabao (159596) closed up by 0.9%, with a turnover of 158 million yuan. In terms of constituent stocks, eight of the top ten awkward stocks rose. China Merchants Bank led the gains, while Kweichow Moutai, China Ping An and other stocks followed suit. Datong Securities pointed out that Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's policy of steady growth next year exceeded expectations, and A-shares are expected to usher in a cross-grade market. Under the guidance of the two monetary policy tools of the central bank and a series of policies such as mergers and acquisitions and market value management of the CSRC, the stock market ushered in a reversal at the end of September. Driven by loose monetary policy and more active fiscal policy, the economic fundamentals will stabilize and rebound with high probability next year; In terms of funds, the entry of stabilization funds and more long-term patient capital into the market is also predictable, and the risk appetite and valuation of A shares will also be supported. Therefore, in 2025, A-share slow cattle can be expected.


In early trading, the main domestic futures contracts rose almost across the board, with coke and glass rising by over 5%, BR rubber and coking coal rising by over 4%, screw thread and soda ash rising by over 3%, iron ore rising by nearly 3%, and hot coil, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), para-xylene (PX), PTA, Shanghai Bank, Shanghai Tin, rapeseed meal and SC crude oil rising by over 2%. In terms of decline, asphalt and low sulfur fuel oil (LU) declined slightly.China's SME development index rose for the second consecutive month, which was released today (10th) by China Small and Medium Enterprises Association. In November, China's SME development index was 89.2, up 0.2 point from October and rising for two consecutive months. China Small and Medium Enterprises Association believes that the main driving force for the continuous rise of the index is that a series of stock support policies continue to exert their strength. At the same time, since September, a package of incremental policies has begun to take effect, and various positive factors have accumulated, which has led to the improvement of the prosperity level of small and medium-sized enterprises. Ma Bin, executive vice president of China Small and Medium Enterprises Association, said that in November, the comprehensive operation index and benefit index of small and medium-sized enterprises rose by 0.5 points respectively, both the biggest increases this year. At the same time, the long-term high cost index has dropped significantly, which is very rare. It shows that the improvement of the prosperity level of small and medium-sized enterprises is based on a virtuous circle, and this wave of "two consecutive rises" has a high gold content.The onshore RMB against the US dollar officially closed at 7.2493 at 16:30 Beijing time, up 267 points from the official closing price of the previous trading day and up 69 points from the closing price of the previous day and night.


Five departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly deployed the "One-month-one-chain" financing for small and medium-sized enterprises to promote the nationwide activities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, the General Administration of Financial Supervision and the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently jointly issued the Notice on Launching the "One-month-one-chain" financing for small and medium-sized enterprises to promote the nationwide activities, so as to accelerate the construction of small and medium-sized enterprises' financing, promote a good ecology and help them develop with high quality. The theme of the "One Chain in January" SME financing promotion activities nationwide is "One Chain in January is beneficial to the smooth integration of enterprises", focusing on key SME groups such as high-quality SMEs and key nodes in the industrial chain, giving play to the role of "share, loan, insurance and burden" comprehensive financing means, and guiding financial resources to support SMEs in the chain more accurately by organizing various docking activities. (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)Google has developed a "quantum chip" with super computing power. On the 9th, Google announced that it has developed a chip with super computing power, which is suitable for quantum computers. It claims that this chip can complete the task that the existing fastest computer takes 10 years (10 to the 25th power) in just 5 minutes. On the same day, Google posted a message on the website saying that in addition to high-speed computing power, this chip named "Willow" also has outstanding error correction ability, paving the way for the development of "practical large-scale quantum computers".KBW: Raise the target price of MasterCard from $580 to $618, and maintain the rating of "outperforming the market".

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